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比特币走势如2000年互联网泡沫 不过速度快了15倍
2018-05-25 03:19 新浪综合
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  比特币的价格走势与纳斯达克综合指数在接近20年前的互联网泡沫期间的走势很像,但是从时间线上来看上涨和崩盘的速度要快得多,摩根士丹利的一份研究报告显示。

  2000年时的纳斯达克综合指数和如今的比特币价格在进入熊市之前的“最繁荣”时期均上涨了250%到280%之间,摩根士丹利在一份向客户发出的研究报告中写道。

  “比特币的价格上涨速度大约是纳斯达克综合指数的15倍。”摩根士丹利的策略师希娜·沙哈(Sheena Shah)说道。

  这些资产的价格运动,以及交易量的类似表现可能预示着纳斯达克的历史正在重复上演,沙哈表示。

  数字货币进入熊市并非是什么新鲜之事。自从在2009年被创立以来,比特币已经经历了四轮熊市,期间比特币的价格跌幅在28%到92%之间,沙哈指出。比特币价格在去年12月份触及到接近20000美元的巅峰水平,到了2018年2月份又下跌到了7000美元之下,这代表着比特币的价格下跌了接近70%,CoinDesk的数据显示。

  平均而言,比特币的价格在每一轮利空浪潮中都下跌了45%到50%,这就像是纳斯达克综合指数在18年前的走势,沙哈表示。

  “纳斯达克在自从2000年陷入的熊市之中已经经历了五次大幅下跌,平均跌幅在44%。”沙哈说道。

  交易量可能是另外一个信号。自从去年12月份以来,比特币的交易量已经大幅跃升了接近300%,沙哈表示。但是比特币在每次陷入熊市之前的上涨走势期间都会见到交易量的下降。

  对于比特币和纳斯达克综合指数而言,他们后续的上涨走势之中都会见到交易量的下降,沙哈说道。“交易量的上升并非预示着更多的投资者进入了市场,而是投资者正在蜂拥走出市场。”

  摩根士丹利指出,比特币的交易量变动与纳斯达克综合指数的趋势并不相关,但可能会是“一种有趣的发展态势。”

  从历史上来看,有三种主要的货币被用来购买比特币:美元、人民币和日元。在最近的熊市之中,一种名为泰达币的新型数字货币则占据了很大一部分比特币交易的份额。”

  泰达币的创始人表示,每个泰达币背后都有一美元的支持,意味着泰达币的市场价格就是一美元。从理论上来讲,泰达币要比大部分价格极具波动性的数字货币要更加稳定。

  “泰达币并不是一种主要的融资单位,但是越来越多投资者使用这种数字货币来购买其他数字货币则是一件非常有期的事情。”沙哈写道。“在未来的数年时间里,我们认为市场的关注重心将会越来越多地转向加密数字货币之间的跨代币交易,而且这种交易可能仅仅只会通过分布式账本来进行,而非是通过银行系统。”

  彭博社在一月份报道称,美国商品期货委员会(CFTC)向发行虚拟货币的公司Tether发了传票。这家公司正在接受调查,原因是一些人怀疑其仅仅只有22亿美元的储备金。

责任编辑:张伟

比特币 互联网泡沫 沙哈

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